The great pause - Pondering empowerment post Corona virus lockdown

During this pause in the human experiment of infinite growth on a finite planet, we all have time to ponder.  Questions like, how should we empower society as we emerge from the corona virus lockdown and what sort of benefits might we expect and hope for from this empowerment?

Something to hope for or just an interesting picture?
Airspeeder motorsport - a mixture of science fiction and gaming

Let's take a moment to further explore empowerment of individuals, how might we do this and what results might we expect.  There are already some pretty well understood candidates (and logically it seems many have self reinforcing aspects for the goal at hand), here are some good examples:

• UBI providing individual freedom and hence more room for creativity
• Free Education to degree level, hence encouraging and satisfying a thirst for knowledge
• Government using and encouraging Open Source and Open Data
• Prioritise walking and cycling, hence improving health, fitness, mobility, community connections and happiness

Plus, what if we combine these with wise long term environmental and economic goals (doughnut economics style):

• Encourage and support regenerative agriculture
• Strive towards a 100% renewable electricity supply
• Electrifying rail and road transportation (apart from maybe some aspects of emergency services)
• Restoring the health of our rivers and our oceans 

With this new world fully embraced, what might this look like over time:

• A healthy environment in balance with human society?
• Increased local capabilities and resilience?
• Increased time for important stuff like friends and family?
• High levels of innovation and hence productivity?
• Increased focus on digital tourism and digital sports events (e.g. where digital experience is the product, think visually realistic and physically active esports, think virtual spectator mixed with photo realistic virtual experiences extrapolated to tourism and new high tech sporting areas)?
  
• Increased reverence for nature and the outdoors (where international tourism for pure physical outdoor experiences becomes a premium highly sought after product)?
• Increasingly complex and interconnected local society (more holistic)?
• A more equal society?
• Increasing richness in art and culture?
• Increased general interest in wondering about life, the universe and our place in it?
• People are energized and alive with tangible opportunities to participate and thrive in society?
• A society that treats Earth as our valued and cherished home, but increasingly looks beyond our home planet for the future?

I'll leave you to ponder these questions or to create your own list of thoughts and ideas.  Either way, I'm sure you will continue to make good use of your very own and very valuable corona-induced dilated time bubble.

Carbon Budget

Courtesy MCC, for more information see: Remaining CO2-budget

Timing is everything...

One of the most important events in humanity's brief history will be our transition to a space-faring species, this event will require daring, innovation and drive.  Another significant event will be the end of traditional economic growth.  The timing of these two events may be fundamental to determining our ability to continue the expansion of knowledge and the associated rapid growth in technology and human capabilities.

If you apply a logical mind to the realities of the physical planet we live on, its clear our growth based economic system cannot continue.

If we take the view shared by most Economists, there is a demand for continued economic growth, year-on-year percentage increases, it is a little scary to see where this will eventually lead us (its an exponential curve of never ending consumption).  Assuming we are able to continue economic growth at a rate of 2.3% per year, its possible to show that we have at most 275 years before things come to a screeching halt.  This is not due to some financial limitation, but due to real physical limits of life and the planet we live on.

Planet Earth
(PHOTO: courtesy Nasa)

If this statement seems absurd, read the links above (if maths and science are not your thing, you might need to find a maths geek to read them and then have a conversation about implications with respect to economic growth etc).  The reality is that it would be physically impossible for humanity to continue a 2.3% growth rate right up to this end point, but it does quite explicitly show that it cannot and will not continue forever.

There is only one inevitable conclusion.  i.e. that the pursuit of year on year growth will ultimately come to an end.   It seems clear to me we have three options from this point on:

1. Chaotic collapse caused by over consumption, resource depletion and pollution with greatly reduced prosperity and the destruction of society as we know it (i.e. forced and uncontrolled transition away from growth caused by physical limits)
2. Controlled transition to a steady state economy with opportunities for continued prosperity and the enrichment of human society and culture.
3. Become a space-faring species and export our economy (and associated exponential growth) into the wider solar system and the universe beyond.

Choosing option 1 is likely to shut the door on options 2 and 3 for a very long time, if not forever.  Options 2 and 3 should be achievable either on their own or together.  If we can make our way to option 3, the wider human economy may continue to grow out into space with the unbounded limits that traditional Economists and their theories desire and require.

In my opinion, aiming for option 3 with an interim plan to transition smoothly to a steady state economy is a wise choice.  It buys us time to get things right.

Food for thought as we live our lives and make our decisions in the coming weeks, months and years...

Just an Opinion?

Back in 2008 I started blogging about Greenstage and I briefly explained why here.

Well, the world is changing fast and some of the drivers for Greenstage are becoming ever more intense and clarity around these drivers and their relatedness is increasing.

We live in a very special time in history. Cheap and abundant energy (in the form of fossil fuels) have enabled a massive expansion of our economies and humanity's capabilities. Some of my personal favorites include achievements like NASA's Space Shuttle, the Hubble Space Telescope, the Large Hadron Collider and Genome sequencing, not to mention the rich tapestry of arts and culture the world over. As fellow humans, irrespective of which country we were born in, we can feel proud of all humanity's achievements.

Inside the Large Hadron Collider

Things are changing fast and to maintain and extend this level of capability, humanity needs to make some adjustments. Peak oil is either already here, or not far away. There are environmental changes resulting from the consumption of non-renewable resources and the release of previously stored carbon into the earth's atmosphere.  Combine this with debt-stretched economies and the resulting economic slowdown, it's clear our current behavior is making the world a starker place for future generations.

Understanding that society's massive growth for the last 100 years has largely been fuelled by abundant and cheap energy, with oil literally squirting out of the ground, is fundamental to understanding the consequences of this energy crunch. Things are going to change whether we like it or not. Our current business as usual approach is unsustainable and becoming ever harder to achieve due to oil and debt fuelled growth coming to an end.  Our choice in the matter, is whether to be proactive about change, or to simply suffer the consequences and be forced into whatever change results.

Energy crunch

What to do?

Be positive, be proactive and change what we need to change! Simple as that. Most successful people and businesses have a long term plan, are passionate about what they do and work towards achieving their goals. Nothing new here.

What's missing in my opinion is leaders with a long term plan that fits with the reality of the situation. Spending billions of dollars on motorways to be used by fossil fuel powered vehicles does not make much sense.

We want a society that maintains and continues to extend the overall capabilities of the human race, but at the same time one that is not over reaching the bounds of the environment.  One that lives within it's means and leaves something for future generations.

I'm all for being proactive!  Lets use this period of transition effectively, leverage the still relatively cheap fossil fuel based energy and infrastructure we currently have to make an effective and speedy transition while we have the opportunity. We need to transition our society to another form of energy that is abundant and cheap and we need to do it quickly.

The solutions are available. Renewable energy from technologies such as wind, hydro and photovoltaic can literally be pulled out of the air (almost as easy as oil squirting out of the ground!).

In the short to medium term long distance transportation will be more expensive, communities will be closer and more connected and locally produced goods will come to the fore. With closer communities, people have additional chances to enjoy each other's company and pursue the challenges they and their communities really benefit from. Hence, there are opportunities for increased fulfilment and satisfaction (read more here).

There are so many positive opportunities out of this. As just one example, a whole new market is emerging for the boat building industry.

No Rena oil spill disaster here!

OK, so what specifically can we do? Look to strengthen your local community and become more self sufficient, look to reduce your fossil fuel consumption, ideally be prepared to stop using fossil fuels at some point in the not too distant future (pricing challenges could force this within the next 5-10 years). And of course, look to encourage and elect local council and government leaders that will steer our communities and our countries in the right direction.

The GS750V is another example of emerging opportunities.  Not only does this embrace the new energy paradigm, but it embraces community-led technology through the development and use of Tumanako open source components.

This is an important project with a message. It's been a long hard road and we have had a number of delays, but we finally have everything in place. We have commercial relationships and supply lines for all the products and components, including equipment and stock to complete the MK1 goal. Stay tuned for updates as we complete the race pack and vehicle preparation for our debut at the track. We're making changes and we're not holding back!

Greenstage is passionate about supporting communities and encouraging the right sort of change. Change creates opportunity and opportunity is exciting.

What changes are you making?

2009 - Optimism in the face of adversity

You can probably guess from the lack of celebratory post, that we have not had the car driving yet. We are still working with the inverter manufacturer to get this resolved. The crux of the issue is the DSP board and the software that runs on it. I hope to have more information and positive news about this situation next week.

In the mean time we are still looking at the bigger picture of what this GS750V project is about. Pre Xmas I became aware of the SolarNetwork project being lead by John Gorman. This Open Source project aims to create a network of solar nodes, where each node measures locally generated power (from PV cells or similar) and local power consumed. All this information is collected together and used to predict future generation and consumption scenarios based on weather forecasts and the future build out of solar node infrastructure.

I believe this solar node network and its associated data will become a very powerful tool to plan future business models and business expansion with respect renewable energy generation.

The other exciting opportunity John and I have discussed, is the opportunity to expand the SolarNetwork infrastructure to support V2G (vehicle to grid) functionality. The idea being that if the owner of the EV plugs the car in for a top up, indicates that they want to minimise the cost of the charge (and the impact on the environment) and that they will not need the car for another 4 hours say. This then allows the V2G system to effectively sell power from the EV battery pack during peak demand and charge the pack when demand is less and power is cheaper. The V2G system manges this process to ensure the pack is fully charged upon the owners return. Of course the owner also has the option to tell the V2G system to just charge the pack as quickly as possible and keep it that way until they return if thats what they desire.

This may sound like a magical fairy tale, but from a software engineering point of view this fits into the category of a very doable medium scale project. The bigger challenge is with the physical infrastructure. This is where the beauty of attacking it with an Open Source project comes in. It will allow the basic concept to be developed to a working stage with one specific type of infrastructure (e.g a specific charger and/or inverter combination). The capability can then be expanded by adding additional functionality to the control algorithms and by adding support for other brands and models of infrastructure (i.e. other manufactures charges and inverters).

Greenstage has already ordered a solar node and hopes to be on the SolarNetwork in the next couple of months. If you would like a solar node, or to get involved with the development, please contact John and let him know how great his project is.

Why wait for the world to change? Lets just do what needs to be done!

Why?

Welcome to the Greenstage New Zealand blog.

Why am I blogging and why does greenstage.co.nz exist?

I have always been environmentally aware, I admire quality engineering including performance vehicles and I have a strong social conscience. Greenstage's purpose is to combine these three things (environment, quality engineering solutions and social good) into a profitable commercial venture that enlightens people to new possibilities, creates demand and pushes my buttons at the same time (I believe you need to love what you do).

To cut to the chase, Greenstage is about living a no compromises life style that is good for the planet. This blog will document Greenstage's progress.

I hope you enjoy the ride.